Solar power is earning far less for each megawatt-hour it produces in several European markets, according to a new analysis from the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), reported by Balkan Green Energy News on 4 November.
The agency describes the four years from 2022 to 2026 as a period defined by a very steep fall in solar capture prices.
What a capture price measures
A capture price is the average price that a specific power source earns for its electricity over a given period, weighted by how much it produces. Comparing it with the baseload price shows how much renewable producers gain or lose by selling into the market.
When many solar plants generate in the same hours, they push prices down in exactly those hours. ACER calls this the cannibalisation effect.
Greece and Spain hit hardest
Solar capture rates fell by more than half in countries such as Greece and Spain between 2022 and May 2026. In May, the solar capture price in Greece stood at just €24.63 per MWh against an average market price of €88.95, according to figures from DAPEEP, the Greek administrator of renewable energy sources and guarantees of origin.
Other markets saw milder declines over the period: 35% in Germany, 30% in Poland and 12% in Italy.
Wind tells a different story
Wind, whose output is spread across all 24 hours of the day, kept its capture prices more or less stable. Germany had the lowest wind rates, starting about 17% below the baseload price in 2022 and reaching minus 11% this year, while Italy stayed at an almost 100% correlation with baseload prices throughout.
Batteries change the maths
ACER found that adding battery storage to existing solar farms makes a large difference to profitability. Using data from Pexapark, it showed capture rates for solar with storage rising steeply this year, to more than 50% above baseload prices.
"Arrangements combining renewable energy generation with storage (i.e. hybrid PPAs) can mitigate the cannibalisation effect," ACER said. Such contracts allow renewable output to be shifted into hours with higher prices, while storage provides steadier supply when renewable generation is low. "Such arrangements can significantly increase capture rates compared to those having less flexibility," the agency added.
A pattern seen across the year
The findings match earlier market data. In May, pv magazine reported Pexapark analysis showing solar capture factors falling year on year in April in France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain. France's dropped to around 0.10 from about 0.42, and Germany's to about 0.26 from 0.40, as the share of solar produced during negative-price hours rose sharply.
"The April 2026 data suggests European solar markets may be entering a new phase where periods of severe midday oversupply are no longer isolated events but recurring structural conditions, particularly in shoulder months," Pexapark analyst David Battista wrote at the time.
What it means for European developers
The message from the regulators' own agency is that standalone solar selling at market prices is becoming a weaker business case in Europe's most saturated markets, with Greece and Spain the clearest examples. Projects that add batteries, or that sign hybrid PPAs able to deliver power outside the midday peak, are capturing far more value. For new solar projects, the storage plan is fast becoming as important as the module and land costs.
Source: Balkan Green Energy News, reporting ACER's analysis, 4 November 2026; additional data from Pexapark via pv magazine.
