China has built more solar than any other power source, but a growing share of that electricity is never used. A joint monitoring report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) estimates that combined wind and solar curtailment in China reached 360 billion kWh in the first half of 2026, 49% more than a year earlier.
Official figures tell a milder story
Official national data puts the first-half curtailment rate at 8.6% for solar and 9.1% for wind. Utilisation fell to 91.4% for solar, down 2.6 percentage points year on year, and to 90.9% for wind, down 2.3 points. Both utilisation rates have now declined for three years in a row.
The regional gaps are wide. Solar utilisation was only 63.8% in Tibet, 76.8% in Qinghai, 82.5% in Gansu and 83.2% in Xinjiang. Spot market data from Lambda suggests that actual solar output has typically run at around 70% of forecast since January 2025 and has never exceeded 80%, a sign that the official rates may understate the problem.
Capacity has outrun the grid
China's installed solar capacity reached 1,286 GW at the end of July 2026, overtaking coal as the country's largest power source by installed capacity. State Grid data shows that 74% of annual curtailment happens in spring and autumn, and 74% of daily curtailment at midday, when solar output peaks. The northern regions are expected to account for about 80% of State Grid's curtailment by 2030.
Prices and profits under pressure
Market reforms under Document No. 136 removed fixed feed-in tariff protection for solar projects, exposing them to market prices. In Shandong, the May reference settlement price for solar under the new pricing mechanism was RMB 51.042/MWh, about RMB 0.051/kWh. In January, some distributed projects received on-grid tariffs as much as 97% below the local coal-fired benchmark.
Investors have responded. New distributed solar installations fell 60% nationwide in the first half and 84% in Shandong, while commercial and industrial distributed additions fell by more than 61%.
Large generators are feeling the impact. China Three Gorges Renewables expects first-half net profit of RMB 1.045 billion to RMB 1.295 billion, down 66% to 73%. Datang Renewable Power's net profit fell 58% to 60% and CGN New Energy's by 49.8%. GD Power Development reported a 67.3% drop, with net profit in its solar segment down 62.94%. PV Tech describes the result as plants "generating more yet earning less".
Storage and transmission are the planned fix
The 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 targets 300 GW of new energy storage by 2030, including about 160 GW to be added during the plan period, alongside 160 GW of pumped storage. It also aims for more than 100 GW of demand-side peak shaving, over 50 GW of virtual power plant capacity, 50 GW of adjustable capacity from electric vehicles and more than 420 GW of west-to-east transmission capacity.
What it means for Asia-Pacific markets
China's experience shows that fast solar growth without matching grid, storage and market reform turns cheap generation into lost revenue. For developers across Asia-Pacific, curtailment risk and exposure to midday prices now belong in every financial model, and projects that pair solar with storage or flexible demand are better placed to keep their value. China's storage and transmission targets also point to strong demand for batteries and grid equipment for the rest of the decade.
Source: PV Tech, with data from CREA, Global Energy Monitor, State Grid and company reports.
