Germany could save about €66 billion on expanding its distribution grids by 2045 if network operators use them differently, according to a new study for the think tank Agora Energiewende. That is more than a quarter of the roughly €250 billion that current planning would cost.
Reported by pv magazine Deutschland on 30 October, the 101-page study was modelled by the consultancy Consentec and the research institute FfE.
Where the savings come from
The study puts the savings at no less than €2 billion a year from 2030 and €5 billion a year from 2035. For comparison, pv magazine notes that the federal government spent €6.5 billion in 2026 alone to bring grid fees down.
"For grid planning, the rule should be: innovation where possible, expansion where necessary," said Julia Bläsius, director of Agora Energiewende Deutschland, in a statement translated here from German. "The new generation of electricity consumers and generators also requires modern use of the grids," she said.
A list of tools, not one fix
Agora lists a range of measures: placing storage alongside generation, overbuilding, dynamic peak capping, running equipment at higher utilisation, grid-serving storage, dimming under section 14a of Germany's Energy Industry Act, dynamic grid fees and targeted management of load peaks.
There is no universal solution, the think tank says. Depending on the local grid, the answer could be a price incentive in winter or dynamic peak capping of ground-mounted solar at midday.
Generation first, then load
The timing of the measures matters. Until the mid-2030s, the measures on the generation side do the work, Agora finds. These include building storage next to large renewable plants and not sizing grid connections for their maximum output. After that, demand from electric cars, heat pumps and electrified industry becomes the dominant factor, and the study forecasts the largest need for expansion from the mid-2030s onward.
The study also offers a view on where batteries belong. It describes large batteries on the distribution grid, most of which are co-located with generation, as a bridging measure, and expects large storage in the long term to connect mainly to the transmission grid.
What Agora wants from Berlin
The savings depend on the rules. Agora calls for a regulatory framework adapted by the federal government and the Federal Network Agency, along with incentives for better use of the grid, clear requirements, transparency and binding commitments. pv magazine also lists price signals that reflect local grid load, smaller connections combined with storage and measures to relieve the grid in emergencies.
Operators, Bläsius said, need clear "guardrails".
What it means for European developers
This is a study, not a law, but it shows where the German debate is heading. For solar developers, it points to smaller connections paired with storage and to the possibility of output being capped at midday on some sites. Battery investors should note the suggestion that the role of co-located distribution-level storage may be transitional. Other European markets facing grid bottlenecks may find the same questions on their own agendas.
Source: Agora Energiewende and pv magazine Deutschland.
