India could have around 135 GW of spare solar module capacity available for export by 2030, the second-largest surplus in the world after China, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Its India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026, published on 3 November, argues that the country can help diversify global solar supply chains.
From 22 GW to 225 GW
India's module manufacturing capacity has grown from about 22 GW in 2022 to about 150 GW in 2025 and 225 GW in September 2026. The IEA expects it to reach about 250 GW by 2030, around four times the country's projected annual installations.
China would still have almost 600 GW of spare capacity. Globally, the IEA estimates about 780 GW of capacity available for export by 2030, against import demand of 130 to 160 GW.
Moving upstream
Cells are catching up more slowly. About 48 GW of cell capacity was awarded under India's production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, about 27 GW was commissioned by the end of 2025 and more than 16 GW is under construction. The IEA expects more than 60 GW of cell capacity by 2030.
India's first wafer plant, of about 2 GW, started in 2025, and wafer capacity could reach about 50 GW by 2030. No polysilicon plant was operating in 2025; by 2030, domestic polysilicon is forecast to support about 20 GW of integrated modules a year.
Imports still matter. Cell imports rose from about US$0.4 billion in 2020 to about US$2.5 billion in 2025, roughly 70% of them from China.
Close to China on cost
The IEA puts India's integrated manufacturing cost at about US$0.15 per watt, only around 10% above China and below unsubsidised costs in the European Union and the United States. It is, however, 70% above recent global spot market prices.
Policy has driven the build-out: the PLI scheme was raised from INR 45 billion in 2021 to INR 240 billion in 2022, customs duties of 40% on modules and 25% on cells apply since 2022, and domestic cells have been required under the ALMM list since June 2026.
Solar leads the growth
The IEA forecasts India's renewable capacity at about 530 GW by 2030, with solar above 80% of the growth and passing 350 GW. Net additions are expected to rise from 49 GW in 2025 to 58 GW in 2030.
Storage is starting from a low base. Utility-scale batteries totalled 350 MW at the start of 2026, more than 1 GW is expected this year and the pipeline stood at about 111 GWh in January.
"India's experience shows how consistent policies can help drive down renewable energy costs and attract investment," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
What it means for module buyers
India is becoming a large second supplier outside China, but its cost advantage is narrow and depends on policy support. Buyers looking to diversify should expect more Indian modules on offer, while cells, wafers and polysilicon will rely on imports for some years yet.
Source: IEA India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026, via TaiyangNews.
